Steel winter storage market difficult to reproduce, crude steel production continues to decline

Published Time:

2018-07-17

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Summary

Although winters in previous years have been the off-season for steel consumption, the winter storage market still offered hope for steel prices. However, the 2013 winter storage market is expected to underperform. The main reasons for this judgment are: a pessimistic outlook for the steel market, resulting in insufficient market willingness for winter storage; steel traders, having suffered losses, are short of funds, and tighter bank lending has further constrained their finances, making it difficult for them to engage in winter storage. Neither the motivation nor the ability supports steel traders and consuming enterprises to engage in winter storage.

  While winters in previous years have been the off-season for steel consumption, the winter storage market still offered hope for steel prices. However, the 2013 winter storage market is expected to underperform. The main reasons for this judgment are: a pessimistic outlook for the steel market, resulting in insufficient market willingness for winter storage; steel traders, after suffering losses, have limited funds, and tighter bank lending has further constrained their finances, making it difficult for them to engage in winter storage. Neither the motivation nor the capacity supports steel traders and consuming companies in undertaking winter storage.

 

  Given the unpromising winter storage market and the entry of steel consumption into the off-season, steel demand is expected to remain weak. Before the end of the year, steel prices are likely to consolidate at low levels, and coking coal and coke are unlikely to see any upward momentum.

 

  The latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association shows that the average daily crude steel output in early December continued the downward trend of November, with a preliminary estimate of 2.0129 million tons, a decrease of 3.7% month-on-month. This figure is significantly lower than the average for the first 10 months of 2013. Regardless of the accuracy of the data, it reflects a downward trend in crude steel production, which means reduced demand for coking coal and coke by steel producers, creating a direct negative impact on the coking coal and coke market. If crude steel production continues to decline, the outlook for the coking coal and coke spot market will be bleak.

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