Steel winter storage market is difficult to reproduce, crude steel production continues to decline
Although the winter in previous years was the off-season of steel consumption, due to the existence of winter storage market, winter steel price performance is still worth looking forward to. However, the winter storage situation in 2013 is expected to fall short of expectations. The main reasons for making the above judgments are: the steel market is more pessimistic, the market winter willingness is insufficient; after the steel traders lose money, the funds are scarce, and the bank tightens the loan. Tightening the waistband of steel traders, insufficient funds also make it difficult for steel traders to carry out winter storage. No matter whether it is motivation or ability, it does not support steel traders and consumer enterprises to carry out winter storage.
In the case that the winter storage market is hard to expect and steel consumption enters the off-season, it is expected that the demand for steel will be difficult to improve. Before the end of the year, the probability of low price consolidation of steel prices is large, and it is difficult for coking coal and coke to form an upward breakthrough.
According to the latest data of China Steel Association, the average daily crude steel output in the first ten days of December continued the downward trend in November, with a preliminary estimate of 2.0129 million tons, down 3.7% from the previous month. This figure is significantly lower than the first 10 months of 2013. The average level. Regardless of whether the data is accurate or not, the data itself reflects the downward trend of crude steel production, and the decline in crude steel production means that the steel producers have reduced the demand for coking coal and coke, which has directly caused a negative impact on the coal char data. . If steel production continues to decline, the spot market for coal char will not be optimistic.